Written by Godfrey AKON

How Nigeria exited recession in Q4, 2020- NBS

A fourth quarter report of 2020 by the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, says Nigeria has exited economicrecession after its Gross Domestic Product, GDP, grew by 0.11 per cent, year-on-year, during the period.



The quarterly report released on Thursday, said the0.11 per cent GDP growth between October and December of 2020, represents the first positive quarterly growth throughout the year, following a rebound of positive economic activities after the lockdown.


Recall that the country officially slumped into its second recession in five years between August and July of last year, following a decline of 3.6 per cent in its economy caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and falling oil prices.


According to the NBS report, the economy contracted 1.92 per cent during the entire year, better than the International Monetary Fund, IMF, earlier forecasted.


While noting that the overall annual growth of real GDP was estimated at –1.92 per cent, the NBS said a decline of –4.20 per cent was recorded when compared to the 2.27 per cent achieved in 2019.

“Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.11 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing the first positive quarterly growth in the last three quarters.

 “As a result, while the Q4 2020 growth rate was lower than growth rate recorded the previous year by –2.44% points, it was higher by 3.74% points compared to Q3 2020,”  NBS said.

The bureau said on a quarter on quarter basis, real GDP growth was 9.68 per cent indicating a second positive consecutive quarter on quarter real growth rate in 2020 after two negative quarters.

It further noted that in the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N43.564 billion in nominal terms, adding that this performance was higher when compared to Q4 2019, which recorded a GDP aggregate of N39.577 billion, representing a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 10.07 per cent.

While giving a breakdown of Nigerian Economy in its classification of oil and non-oil sectors, the NBS said in the oil sector, an average daily oil production of 1.56 million barrels per day was recorded during the period.

It noted that this was lower than the daily average production of 2.00 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2019 by -0.44 mbpd and Q3 2020 by –0.11 mbpd.

It added that real growth of the oil sector was –19.76 per cent (year-on-year) in Q4 indicating a decrease by –26.12 per cent relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

The NBS also noted that the non-oil sector on its part grew by 1.69% in real terms in Q4 2020.

“This is slower than the 2.26% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019, but better than the –2.51% growth rate recorded in the preceding quarter.

“For the full year of 2020 however, the non-oil sector grew –1.25% compared to 2.06% in 2019,” it said.



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