The Centre for Democracy and Development, CDD, has outlined identity politics, zonal considerations, and persistent violence are as key influencers in the electoral landscape in the upcoming off-cycle polls in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi, slated for November 11, 2023.
According to the report these factors are setting the stage for a closely scrutinized evaluation of elected governors emphasizing the critical role these elections play as a referendum on the new government’s performance while
Director of CDD, Idayat Hassan,in a statement highlights the challenges faced by both the ruling party, led by President Tinubu, and the opposition, including the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP).
“It said: “The outcomes of these contests will significantly impact the political fortunes of the parties involved and lay the foundation for the upcoming general elections in 2027. The 2023 Nigerian general elections marked an important milestone in the country’s democratic journey, characterized by technological advancements, increased civil society participation, and identity-based divisions among candidates and parties.
“These factors influenced the election results and set the stage for the off-cycle governorship elections in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi.”Providing further insights, CDD noted that given the fact that the elections will be held approximately 120 days into the tenure of new administration, they present a unique challenge for both the ruling party, led by President Tinubu, and the opposition, including the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP).
” It said: “The performances of the elected governors, including Diri in Bayelsa, Uzodinma in Imo, and Bello in Kogi, will be closely scrutinized, as these states experienced contentious and litigated general elections at the beginning of the year.“Identity politics, zonal considerations, and violence continue to influence the electoral landscape, making it crucial for parties to strategize effectively.
“The absence of governorship debates and the winner-takes-all approach further complicate the decision-making process for voters, potentially contributing to increased cynicism in Nigerian politics. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) plays a crucial role in administering these elections, given the scrutiny it faced in the 2023 elections.
“The use of technology and electronic result transmission has been introduced, with some concerns regarding the recent Supreme Court ruling and the appointment of resident electoral commissioners. The public’s perception of INEC’s performance will be a defining factor in the credibility of these elections.”
One major concern underscored in the report is the anticipated role of misinformation, disinformation, and fake news during the elections.
CDD reveals that various election stakeholders expressed apprehension about the disinformation campaigns orchestrated by political parties, utilizing influencers and youth mobilizers.
Examining the state of the race in Bayelsa, the report notes a two-horse contest primarily between Incumbent Governor Duoye Diri of the PDP and former Governor Timipre Sylva of the APC. However, momentum is building around the candidacy of Eradiri Udengmobofa of the LP.
In Imo State, the report highlights the overall lack of inclusion, with all 17 governorship candidates being men. Front-runners include incumbent Governor Hope Uzodinma of the APC, Samuel Nnaemeka Anyanwu of the PDP, and Athan Achonu of the LP.
The report also delves into the ethnic considerations shaping the political landscape in Kogi State. It recalls historical instances where ethnicity played a major role in election outcomes, emphasizing the potential impact on the upcoming polls.
As the report shifts the spotlight to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), highlighting concerns about recent Supreme Court rulings and the appointment of resident electoral commissioners.
Despite these challenges, the report expresses optimism for increased civic engagement and scrutiny of gender inequity in future elections.
