By Omeiza Ajayi
Once dismissed as a fringe player running party affairs from a cramped corner shop in Nyanya, the African Democratic Congress ADC is now standing on the edge of its biggest political test yet.
The party will today, Saturday, August 16, face off in several national and state assembly bye-elections that could either cement its rise as a credible third force or expose it as an overhyped newcomer.
For a movement that has traded dust and plastic chairs for defectors, big money and national ambition, this is the moment of truth.
Humble Shadows
The ADC was never supposed to be a heavyweight—at least not in its early days. The party emerged in 2006 as an alternative platform for citizens disillusioned with the dominant political giant – the Peoples Democratic Party PDP.
It went on to contest in the 2007 Presidential Election, fielding renowned economist, Prof. Pat Utomi who scored 50,000 votes.
Nearly a decade down the line and disillusioned with the ruling All Progressives Congress APC and the lack of credible opposition by the PDP, former President Olusegun Obasanjo had floated a political movement, the Coalition for Nigeria Movement CNM. In 2018, the Obasanjo’s CNM adopted the African Democratic Congress ADC as its political platform.
While Obasanjo’s voice carried (and still carries) great political value, the same could not be said of its electoral value.
When the CNM adopted the ADC as its political platform in 2018, the leadership structure of the ADC effectively became the operational leadership of the “coalition” for the purpose of the 2019 elections.
From a “corner shop” (or Kiosk as its erstwhile chairman puts it) as its national secretariat in Nyanya, a bustling town in Abuja which shares boundary with Mararaba in Nasarawa state, ADC today has its national secretariat within the city.
Operating from Nyanya gave it proximity to the political heartbeat of Abuja while keeping costs low.
The party’s first office had no air conditioning, often relied on borrowed power generators and sometimes doubled as a storage space for campaign materials. The space was sometimes empty with no staff in the “shop” that was its national secretariat. Yet it became a meeting ground for idealists, activists and grassroots organizers seeking a different brand of politics.
What the ADC lacked in resources, it made up for in ambition. The founding members envisioned a platform that would bridge Nigeria’s political divide, offering a mix of social democracy and pro-market reforms with a heavy emphasis on accountability and civic engagement.
The Turning Point
For years, the ADC was largely a fringe player, failing to make significant inroads nationally. That however could change with the wave of high-profile defectors it currently witnesses, particularly with the internal crises rocking other opposition parties.
Former lawmakers, state commissioners, technocrats and even a handful of ex-ministers began to view the ADC as fertile ground—a place where their political ambitions could flourish without the suffocating hierarchies of the bigger parties.
The influx transformed the ADC’s image almost overnight. From being dismissed as “that small party from Nyanya,” it began to be mentioned in the same breath as mid-tier political contenders. With new members came new funding, modern campaign machinery and a professional communications strategy that positioned the party as a fresh but credible alternative.
The bye-elections
The upcoming bye-elections are scattered across multiple states, covering both national assembly and state assembly seats. While the total number of seats up for grabs is small compared to the 2027 horizon, the symbolic value is immense.
The Independent National Electoral Commission INEC had on June 16 fixed August 16 for the conduct of 16 constituency bye-elections in 12 states of the Federation.
Accordingly, the Commission said it will be deploying 30,451 officials for the exercise.
The outstanding bye-elections involve two Senatorial Districts – Anambra South and Edo Central; five Federal Constituencies – Ovia South West/Ovia South East in Edo State; Babura/Garki in Jigawa State; Chikun/Kajuru in Kaduna State; Ikenne/Shagamu/Remo North in Ogun State; and, Ibadan North in Oyo State.
There will also be bye-elections in nine State constituencies viz; Ganye in Adamawa State; Onitsha North I in Anambra State; Dekina/Okura in Kogi State; Zaria Kewaye and Basawa in Kaduna State; Bagwai/Shanono in Kano State; Mariga in Niger State; Karim Lamido I in Taraba State; and, Kauran Namoda South in Zamfara State.
The 16 constituencies spread across 12 States of the country involves a total of 3,553,659 registered voters spread across 32 Local Government Areas, 356 Wards and 6,987 Polling Units.
However, in spite of the declaration of vacancies, bye-elections will not hold in two State constituencies for the time being. These are Khana II State Constituency in Rivers State as a result of the current state of emergency and Talata Mafara South State Constituency in Zamfara State following a legal challenge to the declaration of the seat vacant by the State Assembly.
In addition to the bye-elections, the Commission will also conduct the two outstanding Court-ordered re-run elections in Enugu South I State Constituency of Enugu State and the Ghari/Tsanyawa State Constituency in Kano State.
“These elections were severally disrupted by thuggery and violence. They will now be combined with the bye-elections upon assurances from the security agencies to adequately secure the process. The two elections will be held along with the bye-elections on Saturday 16th August 2025”, INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu said.
Stakes Couldn’t Be Higher
For the ADC, even winning two or three of these contests would be a public relations coup, signaling to voters and political analysts that the party can compete beyond rhetoric. A poor performance, however, would feed the perception that the ADC is all talk—an attractive logo with little real ground game.
Party strategists know this. In recent weeks, ADC leaders have been crisscrossing constituencies, holding town hall meetings, rolling out social media blitzes, and quietly negotiating alliances with smaller local parties to secure support. The messaging has been clear: “We are not just here to participate; we are here to win.”
Why the Bye-elections Matter Beyond ADC
While all eyes are on the ADC’s performance, the bye-elections will also serve as a mini-referendum on Nigeria’s broader political climate ahead of 2027. Voter turnout, campaign financing and the tone of political discourse in these races will offer clues about what to expect in the next general election.
With the APC still in control at the federal level, the PDP struggling to regain its footing, the Labour Party torn into factions, and other smaller opposition parties jostling for relevance, these contests could expose weaknesses—or reveal surprising new strengths—across the board.
Challenges Facing the ADC
Despite its recent growth, the ADC faces serious obstacles. One of such is name recognition. Outside political circles, many voters still confuse the ADC with other smaller parties or don’t know its ideology. Some even confuse it with the APC. Indeed, at its unveiling as a coalition platform, one of the masters of ceremonies shouted “APC” when he meant to shout “ADC”.
For now, the ADC does not seem to have a lot of ground structure. Even in some states, the party has already broken into factions with foundational members kicking against alleged attempts to supplant them by the new entrants. Building grassroots networks could sometimes take years. While defectors have brought in experience, some local chapters remain thin on organization.
Many have compared it with the way the APC also emerged in 2013 but they are not the same. APC was a merger of existing opposition parties and a faction of the ruling PDP who were on ground in several parts of the country. They had individual strongholds and they entered into the merger with already established structures, several sitting governors, federal and state lawmakers as well as Council chairmen and councillors.
Then there is the issue of funding and spending efficiency. The ADC now has more money than it did in its “Nyanya days”, but its spending power still pales in comparison to the APC and PDP war chests.
The arrival of heavyweight politicians risks sidelining the party’s founding ideals if new members pursue personal ambitions over collective goals. Chief party promoter, Salihu Moh. Lukman had recently raised the alarm that some “professional” politicians were already trying to hijack the party and imposing their stooges on members as local party leaders.
Prospects
The ADC has a fresh image. Compared to the “old guard” parties, the ADC can still project an image of newness and reform.
High-profile entrants who are seen as strategic defectors can bring ready-made voter bases and tested campaign machinery.
Recent rebranding efforts have helped the ADC articulate its vision in simple, relatable terms.
Then, there is the urban-youth appeal. ADC has consistently announced that it places emphasis on innovation, jobs and clean governance, the kind of messaging that resonates with younger, urban voters who are frustrated with the status quo. It has indeed injected a lot of youths into its National Working Committee NWC.
The Battle Plan for August 16
Insiders say the ADC is focusing its resources on a few winnable constituencies rather than spreading thin across all bye-elections. The party is reportedly investing in local radio ads, market rallies and door-to-door canvassing—methods that worked well in the past in Nigeria’s electoral culture.
Candidates are being encouraged to localize their campaign promises: in agrarian communities, focusing on farm-to-market roads and fertiliser access; in urban centers, highlighting job creation and small business loans.
Social media is another major battleground. The ADC’s digital team is using WhatsApp groups, short-form videos and targeted Facebook ads to counter the APC and PDP dominance in traditional media.
Why APC must be worried
If the ADC wins multiple seats, Nigerians should expect an immediate surge in defections from other parties and increased media attention. This could snowball into a serious 2027 challenge.
If the ADC shows a modest performance—winning one or two seats— that would still keep its hopes alive but highlight the need for deeper grassroots investment before 2027.
However, a massive loss would be damaging, possibly discouraging donors and weakening morale, though the party could still regroup with enough time before 2027.
From Nyanya to National Ambition
Regardless of Saturday’s outcome, the ADC’s journey from a corner shop in Nyanya to contesting national and state assembly seats is already a political case study in determination, opportunism and the unpredictable nature of Nigerian politics.
In the coming days, the party’s future will depend on how well it can translate its recent buzz into actual votes. Nigerians have heard the promises—now they want proof at the ballot box.
If the ADC can rise to the occasion, August 16 could be remembered as the day it stepped firmly onto the national stage. If not, it will serve as a sobering reminder that in Nigerian politics, ambition alone doesn’t win elections—organization, strategy and timing do.
For now, the nation watches. From Nyanya’s humble beginnings to the grand chambers of the National Assembly, the ADC’s next chapter will be written in the inked thumbs on Saturday’s ballots.
Omeiza, a journalist, writes from Abuja.
