Nigeria must grow its economy by about 28 per cent a year in dollar terms to achieve its $1 trillion target by 2030, a pace of about 6 times its current performance.
First Deputy President of the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry, ACCI, Prof. Adesoji Adesugba, disclosed this on Tuesday in Abuja, while delivering the keynote address at the 20th anniversary lecture of the Commerce and Industry Correspondents Association of Nigeria, CICAN.
Speaking on the theme “From Ambition to Arithmetic: Actualising the Federal Government’s $1 Trillion Economy,” he urged Nigerians to treat the target differently.
“The $1 trillion economy is best understood not as a forecast but as a mobilisation target, and it will be won or lost on the quality of implementation rather than the quality of announcements,” he said.
Adesugba noted that independent analysts put Nigeria’s 2025 nominal GDP at roughly $285 billion to $291 billion, meaning the economy must more than triple in five years.
He added that the 28 per cent figure was also cited by speakers at the 42nd Omolayole Management Lecture last month.
According to him, real growth is nowhere near that pace as the economy expanded 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, the strongest quarter since late 2024, and 4.16 per cent in the first half.
“On current real growth rates, the 2030 date is highly ambitious, and we serve the nation better by saying so plainly than by repeating it uncritically,” Adesugba said.
On current trajectory of the economy, the former Managing Director of Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority, NEPZA, said real growth stands at 4 to 4.5 per cent could grow the economy to only about $450 billion by 2030, with $1 trillion around 2040.
He also advanced the possibility of reform acceleration that could give boost to growth at 6 to 7 per cent and about $585 billion, with $1 trillion around 2034.
He explained that the highly optimistic scenario is where high growth plus a stronger naira are expected to raise the stakes to about $773 billion, with $1 trillion around 2032.
Adesugba noted that the country cannot achieve that target with the current exchange rate in which the naira exchanges at about N134 per a dollar.
According to him, the naira’s appreciation of more than 12 per cent between the first halves of 2025 and 2026 lifted the economy by about 17 per cent in dollar terms, while real output grew only about 4 per cent.
He however noted that “The exchange rate cannot do the heavy lifting,” he said, warning that “any attempt to manufacture a trillion-dollar headline through an artificially strong naira would repeat the costly mistakes of the past.”
Adesugba credited recent macroeconomic gains, stating that inflation fell to 14.63 per cent in September from 20.98 per cent a year earlier, reserves stand at $55.25 billion, the highest in 18 years, and the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, cut the policy rate from 26.5 to 23 per cent.
“Stabilisation has been substantially achieved; transformation has not yet begun at the scale the target requires,” he said.
He said the gap shows in investment, as foreign direct investment was only $135.08 million, or 1.3 per cent, of the $10.37 billion in capital imported in the first quarter.
“Portfolio capital stabilises the currency; direct investment builds factories and jobs. We are attracting the former in abundance and the latter in trickles,” he said.
He also stressed the need for power infrastructure, stating the current national grid averaged 4,758 megawatts, MW, in August against 13,625 MW of installed capacity.
“No economy of 220 million people has ever approached a trillion dollars on five gigawatts of grid power,” he warned.
He stressed the importance welfare of the citizens, stating that about 63 per cent of Nigerians, roughly 140 million people, were below the poverty line in 2025, according to the World Bank.
“A trillion-dollar economy that leaves the majority poor would be neither stable nor legitimate. Stability is the floor of the trillion-dollar ambition, not its ceiling,” he added.
Adesugba urged policymakers to complement the 2030 headline with verifiable interim targets: a $500 billion economy, sustained real growth of at least 6 per cent, FDI above 10 per cent of capital inflows, grid availability of at least 8,000 MW and single-digit inflation.
“Milestones of this kind convert a slogan into a scorecard, and a scorecard is something that citizens, investors and journalists can hold the state accountable to,” he said.
He identified the 2027 general elections as a moment of risk, adding that the single greatest risk to the trillion-dollar ambition is policy reversal.
He called for a clear, bipartisan commitment to market-determined exchange rates, the new tax framework and fiscal discipline to sustain the momentum towards growth.
While addressing participants, Adesugba urged CICAN to publish a quarterly “$1 Trillion Tracker” scoring growth, FDI, grid availability, inflation, manufacturing, employment and poverty.
He also proposed an economic reporting fellowship and an annual real economy forum.
He noted that Nigeria ranked 112th of 180 countries in the 2026 World Press Freedom Index, up from 122nd but still in the “difficult” category, and called on government to protect journalists and publish data promptly.
Earlier, the Chairman of CICAN, Mr. Gabriel Kuma, said CICAN’s journey since its registration in June 2006 had been marked by perseverance, professional commitment and determination.
Kuma said the association had evolved from a modest beginning into a platform for journalists covering commerce, industry and investment to deepen their knowledge, influence policy and contribute to national development.
He urged stronger collaboration among government, industry and the media to build a productive and prosperous Nigerian economy.
